Zipcar

[Mark Tomlinson]

RAN and Ziggy, you are hitting on something I've been reading lately - although I don't have any specific links to support it. There is speculation that the automotive industry is getting more specialized. It is being compared to the sneaker or tennis shoe industry. When I was in grade school, there were basically two shoes; Keds for gym class and Hushpuppies for everything else. Now there are dozens of types of shoes for walking, running, basketball - any sport seems to have it's own shoes anymore. The minivan and later the SUV had become the "one size fits all" vehicles for the American market. Now we're seeing commuter cars, city cars, highway cars, etc.

But at tens of thousands of dollars each, I doubt vehicles can become too specialized. Not to mention that city dwellers and most suburbanites don't have the real estate to park more than one or two. What I think we'll see in the short term (next twenty-five years) is a growth in the rental car industry. A portion of the buying public will purchase vehicles that meet 90% of thier needs and rent vehicles for the remaining 10%. I've already done that, although only once when my wife and I took two other couples to a show. Families won't, and they are in the majority. But young couples starting out and especially the elderly on fixed incomes will seriously consider economical (to purchase and run) vehicles that seat two and have only 100+ mile ranges.

For the long term (past twenty-five years), I suspect that range will become a non-issue. Rapid recharging, a battery swap infrastructure, longer range, and advancements in range-extended (serial hybrids) vehicles will make a 150 mile range laughable. When that happens, sell your stock in Avis.

[danbucks]

I would state that vehicles have become specialized - and no, only folks like Leno collect cars as they would sneakers, but they are specialized in look, target market/demographic, etc. In fact it all began with one of the unique features of the "classics" : the ability to customize your vehicle. Before that, a car was a car was a car - you bought it because it moved, not because of what it looked like.
Most industries like shoes are not specialized because average joe people actually need the specialized shoes ... it's a self-propagating race between shoe makers to push out/bury the competition with marketing fluff, like cereal makers pushing competition off the store shelves with an massive assault of various cereal types (the irony of Michael Phelps being on sugar corn flakes rings loud and true). For shoes, the pros can in fact notice the difference ... but we can't (I mean between barely skewed shoes, not between running shoes and hiking boots).


Avis and the like won't be going anywhere, and will always serve a purpose, but to evaluate their stock, I will add something I think is a great idea, with only one downside... that I am sure rental companies are looking at:
http://www.zipcar.com/

[ziggy951]

I am still unsure whether or not ideas like zipcar will ever really gain a following. For a few people it may fill a niche but I highly doubt mainstream appeal for such a service. I know I would probably never have a use for it. I read an article about the service about 5 months after it launched and it was quite a negative review. Who knows though, maybe micropayments will make their debut finally.




Z



On a side note...

Once upon a time I got :threadjacked: by a:taz:. He just walked up to me and smacked me real hard on the head with a :fish:and I was like :confused: for a day. So I had to go to the :COP: and no:wor:thy1 for them to get my thread back. They were no help so I got r:a:n:t:2:101. I couldnt find the :taz: so I felt bang:h:1. Then this guy I know recommended a :guns: of his. So we sat down and gath:er:2 a deal to find the :taz:. After a while the :guns: contacted me and told me what he had done to the :taz:.

First he found him at a local tavern and che:ers:1. That led to :drunks:. Later he :burning:rubber: him out to a quiet field and got him out of the car. At first he :cry:, then he no:wor:thy1 for the :guns: to not take him out. He did not convince him so the :guns:, :zap2: him. Then he :mad:exploding:to what was left.

When I finally had my thread back I was like :whoohoo:. Then I dr:ive1) off into the sunset. So, don't :threadjacked: me or else I'll cens:or:ed1 own you! :wave:

[danbucks]

Z, you have WAY too much time on your hands!
Off topic, one must also wonder if :mad:exploding: is really a smiley. It's almost too fancy!

re: zipcar. It's not a niche, unless one considers urban centers "niche". The downside I hinted to is one and only one thing: you must [still] reserve in advance. That's an absolute killer, compared to, say, NY taxis. If they achieve a large enough volume (who knows - many companies have died long before reaching critical mass) - reservation in advanced could be waived, at which point taxis become niche (for the rich or those unable to drive), not zip.

[RAN]

Ziggy....
:group:bow:

[Derwin]

Ziggy..... That has to be one of the most CREATIVE uses of smilies I have ever seen! cool:thu:mb1

Derwin

[ziggy951]

I must respectfully disagree. Zipcar as a company fits a small niche. Urban centers are technically a niche. Most of the US is urban neighborhoods and spread out communities. In major metropolitan centers they may work, but again that in an of itself is a niche. Hell because of the lack of mass transit their business model relies on having a small area, with lots of people willing to rent a car for a short duration, that need to drive, that have drivers licenses, that are wiling to rent ahead of time a vehicle that they have NO idea what its condition is. If thats not a niche market I guess I dont know what that is. I would guess that places like Denver wouldnt have a need of the service and places like New York wouldn't as well. San Fransisco, maybe...isnt that where they launched?




Z

[danbucks]

tomato, tomato.
The concept does not require "a major metropolitan center" - it would work in any urban, or suburban area. That's not niche.
As mentioned, I believe the concept must reach critical mass to really function. I totally agree that, with reservations in place, the company will remain small, and is most definitely niche ... possibly go poof.
They did start in SF, for good reason:
1) public transit sucks ^%$ there compared to Tokyo, London
2) taxis suck ^%&^% there compared to NYC
therefore: less competition ... and parking spots are tight (owning a car up there is a pain in the rear end)
In NYC, they would have to acquire parking areas (tough), but, once done, would easily go head to head with taxis. Doubtful this will happen, however, since the taxi system and license permission in NYC is so mobbed and gov'd up they will probably be driving gas guzzling monsters for many years to come (and driving you the LONG way around to increase fare - happens all the time)
The following will probably not happen (prisoner's dilemma will kill it), but imagine a suburban neighborhood as follows:
-these cars are carefully placed around the neighborhood
-the neighborhood - ALL of the neighborhood - uses them.
-in all 7 suburban neighborhoods I have lived in, this would most likely guarantee each family could drop one car they own. This (and full neighborhood use) would be required to make this really attractive, and save many $$$ per family.

It can happen: Catalina Island is a private example.

[westonlgray]

If you need to make a once in a while trip somewhere, then they probably work and could maybe eliminate one of 2 cars for a family that lives downtown, but if you live somewhere with 2 parking spaces, then Zipcar is an expensive and inconvenient alternative to owning 2 small cars. Zipcar costs about $100 per day (for the 1st day and $60 per day after) which means that you could drive it for 2 days a month and it would cost more than owning a small gas car. (My small Saturn costs about $160 a month including gas and maintenance/repairs, and purchase price).

Plus, if you own an all electric car and want to go to Grandma's for the weekend, then it would cost $250 for ZIPCAR for a long weekend, and then you have to have it back in the same parking spot come Tuesday. What if you need to stay an extra day? (I don't know if they have fines or something if you go over your reservation.)

[danbucks]

You only pay for the time spent in the car - your commute. Which is an order of magnitude cheaper (at least) than the scenario you describe.
$160 a month gets you about 28 mi a day - just gas, nothing else included. ... well, in my small Saturn. You have a winner, I guess, myself a lemon.
the concept is not for long trips ... but certainly to Grandma's for the weekend for far cheaper than you describe ... unless you are sleeping in the zipcar!

The concept is very simple: personalized public transportation (i.e. taxis without drivers). If they could hit critical mass, there is no convenience issue (that's my point), and the price is that much lower. You can see hitting critical mass is difficult. There are ways to achieve this ... which I don't see Zipcar itself doing.

Zipcar's reservation system does ... if you go over your reservation, you are fined a very large amount of money (I don't recall what - it's big). Very unattractive.

To beat the price over time, I would envision (not what they have now, they are far south of critical mass), you'd have to buy and hold a vehicle for several years, if that, paid off.

[danbucks]

forgot to mention: I am sure their current pricing model also includes their added convenience of parking in SF. That is worth extra money to frustrated parkers. Their price reflects SF reality and costs. In NYC, to store a car there ... can easily match the price of the car. In a parking-"free" area, one cannot apply the same cost model (it will or must be cheaper, of course).